TURKEY: THE MIXED CLIMATE CREDENTIALS OF COP31 HOST

When Turkey prevailed over Australia to become the host of next year’s COP31, it was a reward for the Turks’ unbending intent and resolve, but also a test of resilience for their Pacific fellow contenders. For those following the climate process, it was the welcome end to an awkward standoff that had lasted months.  

Turkey now has 12 months to prepare for the UN climate talks to be held in the Mediterranean coastal city of Antalya in south-western Turkey. Given the circumstances of Turkey’s triumph and Australia’s last-minute capitulation, you can bet it’s going to be a COP unlike we have seen before. 

But what shaped the race? And what exactly do Turkey’s climate credentials look like, if any at all? 

Developed or Developing Country? 

That’s… a little complex.  

With a $1.4 trillion GDP, the country is one of the 20 largest economies in the world. Some organisations consider Turkey a developed country, others do not. A combination of strong domestic demand, robust exports, and supportive government policies drives its large and thriving economy. Its diversified industrial base across sectors like automotive, textiles, and electronics drives and sustains its growth.  

Still, Turkey does experience significant challenges such as high inflation, income inequality, and poverty. In 2022, about 8 percent of the Turkish population (6.6 million) lived below the international upper-middle-income poverty line.  

The country is also a recipient of development assistance. 

Energy, Emissions and NDC 

The country ranks as the 15th largest emitter of CO2 in the world. Turks generate 35 percent of their energy from coal. In this country that’s home to the world-famous Hagia Sophia historical site, renewable energy accounts for 18 percent of the total electricity mix.  

Industrial growth in recent years has been a major driver of Turkey’s emissions, which the country hopes will peak by 2038. Dr. Ümit Şahin of the Istanbul Policy Center thinks this is a flight of fancy.  

‘‘With no plan to phase out coal, no surge in renewables, and no mainstreaming of the green transition, Turkey risks locking itself into a carbon-intensive path,’’ he warns, describing his country’s climate pledge as ‘‘fundamentally inconsistent’’ with its 2053 net-zero target. 

Studies show Turkey could cut emissions to 35 percent below 2021 levels by 2035 by phasing out coal by 2036, installing 10 gigawatts of wind and solar annually and reducing coal use.  

Ratifying the Paris Agreement 

The Turkish Parliament ratified the Paris Agreement in October 2021 and the country formally became party to the agreement in November of the same year. Subsequently, the country’s climate credentials have grown from strength to strength. Its climate governance has expanded rapidly, with the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change established, a Climate Change Directorate constituted, and its first NDC updated (2022). Turkey passed the country’s first climate law this year.  

What do Turks Think About Climate Change? 

Over the past few years, climate change has been moving up the domestic social and political agenda, obviously driven by the consciousness about frequent floods, droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires. Today, about 80 percent of Turks are ‘‘concerned about climate change.’’ 

The city of Antalya is on the frontlines of the changing climate. In recent decades, the coastal city has been experiencing higher-than-usual average annual temperatures and more frequent and intense heavy rainfall, with the flood risk higher than before. Flooding is projected to rise by up to 20 percent in the next few years. 

What Kind of COP Will Turkey Host? 

Turkey, though, says it will host a COP ‘‘for both developing and developed’’ countries, given its status as an advanced developing economy. In recent years, tensions between rich and developing nations have grown over funding for climate action, with the latter citing Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement as the basis for their demands. 

While COP30 allowed the active participation of civil society and other rights groups, there are concerns that this may not be the case in Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become increasingly authoritarian in recent years, with a ruthless crackdown on opposition and dissent.  

Diplomatic Manouvres that Shaped the Race 

As the contest for the host wore on, Turkish and Australian diplomats were a busy lot. Australia is said to have asked Turkey to drop its bid in favour of theirs, in return for Turkey’s restoration of ‘‘Annex 1’’ status. Under UN rules, Annex 1 countries are industrialised nations and economies that are party to the UNFCCC. Turkey has long contended that its removal from the list in 2001 limits its access to development and climate finance. Until Turkey showed no signs of surrender, Australia was pushing to have Turkey’s status reviewed.   

What Role will Australia Play? 

Yes, Australia is still in the picture.  

Australia’s climate minister Chris Bowen will preside over the negotiations, with Turkey hosting the main summit as its presidency.  This agreement, described as ‘‘unusual’’ by observers, and which caught many by surprise, was forged on Wednesday to end the long wait for the next host, which some say was becoming an embarrassment to the UN.  

The COP president ordinarily comes from the host country and is usually his or her country’s lead diplomat during the negotiations. How this partnership will work, if it will work, will be a subject of heightened scrutiny over the next 12 months.