EXPLAINER: Baku to Belém Roadmap to US$1.3 Trillion
The COP Presidency was handed over from Baku to Belem with the bang of a gavel.
One of the main talking points at COP30, currently taking place in the Amazonian city of Belém in Brazil, is the Baku to Belém Roadmap to US$1.3 trillion. In this explainer, we explore what it is, its role in mobilising resources for climate action in developing countries, and the perspectives of Africa’s civil society.
Introduction
At COP29 in Baku last year, developing countries demanded $1.3 trillion to effectively combat the climate crisis. This was not met, with wealthy nations pledging $300 billion in finance under the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG).
The roadmap is a political initiative by the presidencies of COP29 and COP30, Azerbaijan and Brazil. It was a latecomer to the COP29 outcome, established to pacify the disappointment of developing and climate-vulnerable countries with the NCQG outcome.
The roadmap is a non-negotiating consultation process where countries, called Parties, aim to scale up climate finance to the global aspirational goal of $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 to support low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development pathways in developing countries.
To develop the roadmap, the two presidencies have been engaging with governments, civil society and other stakeholders for a year to gather information on ways to boost climate finance for developing countries.
It details suggested actions across grants, concessional finance, private finance, climate portfolios, and capital flows, designed to drive up climate finance over the next decade.
Analysts say it will take trillions, not billions, to address the intensifying climate impacts around the world, and to accelerate the transition to low-carbon economies and enhance countries’ adaptive capacity.
Developing countries insist that this support should be delivered through grants, concessional and non-debt-creating instruments to facilitate the implementation of their National Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs).
This proposal has faced resistance, with some developed countries, including the US, wanting the private sector to help fund this transition.
Additionally, they want the roadmap to help create measures for expanding their fiscal space through various appropriate multilateral initiatives.
Azerbaijan and Brazil were expected to develop the roadmap and produce a report by COP30 with details of their work. Last week, Brazil published the report, with ‘‘no further mandate’’ for countries to discuss how to consider or act upon it.
Notably, the roadmap does not create new financing schemes or mechanisms. Rather, it provides a ‘‘coherent reference framework’’ on existing frameworks to facilitate different actors to scale up climate finance.
In recent years, calls to reform the global finance architecture have grown, with proponents arguing that this will facilitate the effective and smooth flow of resources toward climate action in developing countries.
COP29 president, Mukhtar Babayev, and his COP30 counterpart, André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, support the reform proposal.
‘‘If the international financial architecture is reset to fulfill its original purpose of ensuring decent prospects for life, the 1.3T goal will be an achievable global investment in our present and our future,’’ they said during the launch of the roadmap report.
Climate Finance: Quality over Quantity
For Africa and other developing countries, however, the key question has been not only how much finance will be mobilised, but also the kind and quality of the finance outlined in the roadmap. Critical questions have also emerged on who controls these resources and how equitably they are shared.
At the same time, Africa wanted the Roadmap to be anchored ‘‘in the legal obligations of developed countries’’ as contained in Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement. They oppose the narrative of merely “mobilising all sources” of finance.
Considered one of the anchor sections of the Paris Agreement, the article calls on developed countries to provide financial resources to developing countries to facilitate and accelerate climate action in line with their climate ambitions.
Besides finance, wealthy nations are obliged to provide support through technology transfer and capacity-building.
African Priorities for COP30
In a policy brief titled ‘‘Africa’s Priorities for COP30’’, Power Shift Africa and other civil society organisations call on Africa to reject all attempts to meet the $1.3 trillion target through ‘‘complex or opaque’’ accounting methodologies, blended finance schemes, or repackaged private flows.
The policy brief contains African priorities for COP30. Read the policy brief here.
Private finance, the organisations argue, often fails to reach frontline communities whose lives and livelihoods have been upended by climate impacts.
Instead, the continent demands predictable, transparent, and equitable climate finance ‘‘rooted in public, grant-based flows that directly support adaptation, resilience-building, and just transition efforts’’ across the continent.
Moreover, African civil society warns that the roadmap ‘‘must not become a political cover for inaction or financial rebranding’’ and instead facilitate a path through which ‘‘Parties can ensure that climate finance is genuinely fair, accessible, and transformative’’ by 2035, to help advance both climate resilience and sustainable development across Africa.
The experts say that the Roadmap must become ‘‘a site of vigilance and accountability.’’ The organisations are ready to expose ‘‘greenwashing and double-counting, particularly where private investments are presented as substitutes for public obligations.’’
To them, justice-based finance tracking, its distributive impact, beneficiaries, the terms, equity, and transformation are more important elements of the roadmap than the volume of finance mobilised.