10 Major Events That Could Shape 2026 in Climate
The year 2025 was pulsating, breathtaking, and harrowing in equal measure. From worsening climate impacts worldwide to growing scrutiny on climate multilateralism, vicious trade wars, and rising international conflict, the year kept everyone on their toes. On the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, Donald Trump returned to the White House and withdrew the US from the pact for the second time in five years.
If 2025 was sensational, 2026 is on the cards to rival it on every metric. In this piece, we examine how some of the major developments, including rising climate impacts, the renewable energy charge, ongoing conflicts, foreign policy, and global trade, could shape this year’s climate diplomacy.
1. US Formally Quits the Paris Agreement. One year since the United States pulled out of the Paris Agreement, the withdrawal takes effect this January. President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the most important agreement on climate action upon assuming office at the beginning of last year. The formal process to exit the accord is, however, long and winding, and takes about a year to institutionalise. The process involves a formal written notice to the United Nations Secretary General, followed by a mandatory one-year waiting period. This makes it a deliberate, multi-year process rather than an ‘‘easy’’ snap decision. A country cannot give such a notice until after three years of being a signatory to the Agreement.
2. First Conference on Fossil Fuels Phaseout. Colombia and the Netherlands will co-host the first international conference on the just transition away from fossil fuels. The two-day conference in April aims to create a concrete roadmap for a just, equitable, and planned transition away from fossil fuels. This comes on the back of the roadmap disappointment at COP30 in Brazil last year, where the final text failed to explicitly mention fossil fuels despite strong pushback from over 80 countries demanding a roadmap. The conference in Santa Marta, Colombia, seeks to maintain momentum for a phase-out outside of traditional UNFCCC talks, bringing together governments, experts, and civil society to build on the Paris Agreement, address the urgent need to end coal, oil, and gas extraction, and support the push for a global Fossil Fuel Treaty.
3. Climate Multilateralism on the Spot – Again. Throughout 2025, questions grew about the effectiveness of the climate multilateral process to deliver real solutions to frontline communities. When COP30 failed to deliver climate finance and a pathway for the phaseout of fossil fuels, this scrutiny became more acute. This will continue this year, making 2026 a critical year for climate multilateralism as the international community grapples with the urgent task of translating commitments into concrete climate action. Mounting climate impacts will further fuel the debate. Predictably, geopolitics will rear its (usually) ugly head, with nationalist and protectionist diplomacy curtailing collective problem-solving, including climate action. Once more, multilateralism will be under pressure to prove its effectiveness in a multipolar world where trade tensions, defence funding, and tech wars take centre stage.
But as the director of Power Shift Africa, Mohamed Adow, argues in this article, the world must protect climate multilateralism at all costs.
‘‘Multilateralism gave us the Paris Agreement, the Loss and Damage Fund, the decision to transition away from fossil fuels, and [last] year, nations agreed on the Just Transition Mechanism to ensure the global energy transition is fair… The gravity and magnitude of the [climate] crisis demand that nations work together, not pull apart.’’
4. Climate Finance Tensions to Rise. Developing nations insist that climate finance must be public, grant-based, and anchored in the principle of ‘‘common but differentiated responsibilities’’, with developed countries and historically the largest emitters taking the lead. Developed countries have been pushing to leverage private finance. They also argue that China and some Gulf countries should contribute. These, coupled with persistent and significant shortfalls in climate finance, will be major flashpoints in 2026 and a test of multilateral cooperation.
To date, the core issues of insufficient funding pledges, disputes over who should pay, and how the money is delivered remain largely unresolved. The debate will likely boil over at this year’s COP31, especially after COP30’s ‘‘vague language’’ on tripling adaptation finance, for instance.
Saada Mohamed, a climate finance associate at Power Shift Africa, describes the Global Mutirao’s framing on finance as dangerous. ‘‘The weak language sets the worst precedent in the history of the negotiations by, notably, failing to specifically refer to the legal mandate of rich countries to provide public finance for adaptation.’’
5. Scramble for Africa’s Transition Minerals. The global shift to clean energy and clean mobility is fuelling heightened demand for critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, copper, and rare earths, putting Africa, home to vast reserves of these minerals, on the global map. This scramble will intensify in 2026 as global powers such as the US, China, Europe, and Gulf nations race to secure supply chains for these strategic resources.
Meanwhile, for Africa, this is seen as an opportunity to leverage its resources by moving away from dependence on the extraction and export of raw minerals to drive green industrialisation, job creation, and economic growth. Developing nations are pushing for investments to address infrastructure and governance gaps by building local processing plants. At the same time, the effectiveness and resilience of regional cooperation efforts, such as the DRC-Zambia battery hub, will be tested in a year expected to stage accelerated action, major deals, and heightened strategic manoeuvring to get a piece of Africa.
Whether Africa can come out on top, experts say, will depend on its ability to collectively push for a sustainable, value-added minerals agenda that benefits its people and economies.
6. 1.5 Degrees Threshold – a Delicate Balance. Global temperatures are expected to continue rising this year, in keeping with the trend in recent years. Already, the United Kingdom’s Met Office has forecast that 2026 will likely be the fourth consecutive year exceeding 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, following similar higher temperatures in 2024 and 2025. According to the meteorological department, the year could potentially even reach and exceed the critical 1.5°C mark. Scientists warn that this warming is driven by increased greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from burning fossil fuels. With 75 years to go, the world is rapidly approaching the target of 1.5 degrees set by the Paris Agreement, emphasising the urgent need to address climate change and end the era of fossil fuels.
7. Worsening Extreme Weather Events. In 2025, the world experienced climate-induced deadly heatwaves, catastrophic flooding, intense tropical cyclones, and devastating wildfires. In Southeast Asia, severe floods killed more than 1,800 people between November and December 2025. With the planet warming up more than ever, the frequency and severity of these extreme weather events, including heatwaves, heavy rainfall, droughts, and wildfires, will only increase in 2026. When the atmosphere warms up, its capacity to hold moisture increases, leading to more intense downpours and flooding. Indeed, climate analysts warn the world could shift back to El Niño conditions towards midyear, with the increased risk of heatwaves and drought.
8. COP31 in November in Antalya, Turkey, has a full plate and will seek to build on commitments and implement decisions of previous COPs, notably its predecessor COP30. Its central mandate will be to scrutinise the recently submitted round of national climate plans (Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs 3.0) and push for significantly higher ambition to close this gap. The summit will also attempt to bridge the trust divide between developed and developing nations, seen to have been eroded in recent years, and renew global cooperation on climate action. COP31 has a unique and unprecedented leadership structure, with Turkey hosting the summit and co-hosts Australia leading the negotiations, supported by Pacific nations. Many believe that this unique dynamic will help build consensus between different negotiating blocs, with a particular focus on the resilience of oceans and nature, as well as climate finance for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) that are on the climate frontline, as seas worldwide continue to rise. Some view COP31 as an economic opportunity, with co-host Australia showcasing its clean energy credentials and commitment to sustainable development. The debate on phasing out fossil fuels is certain to continue at COP31. Both Australia and Turkey are heavily dependent on coal, one of the most polluting fossil fuels.
9. Spotlight on Global Conflict. The wars in Sudan, Ukraine, and Gaza were the biggest fixtures in the news throughout 2025. The International Crisis Group warns that 2026 is likely to be another bloody year, following in the footsteps of 2025. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) agrees, saying armed conflict is now ‘‘a defining feature of our time’’, noting: ‘‘Conflicts are spreading, lasting longer, and becoming more complex.’’ Today, more than 204 million people in the world live in areas under the full or contested control of armed groups.
Tasneem Essop, the Executive Director of Climate Action Network International (CAN-I), links fossil fuels to geopolitical instability, arguing that Russia’s war in Ukraine exposed how fossil fuel dependence creates blackmail. She insists that the world must break free from this addiction.
‘‘The blood money funding the [Ukraine] war and many such conflicts is from a dangerous addiction to fossil fuels. We demand an alternate future for humanity, and all that thrives on this planet, one built on renewables, peace, and democracy. It is our best and only chance for peace and survival,” says Tsneem.
10. Reform of the United Nations Charter. Whether the UN Charter is ripe for review is a subject of ongoing, intense debate among member states, international relations experts, and civil society organisations. Many argue that the UN Charter, the document that formally established the body, is outdated and ill-equipped for 21st-century realities, including climate change, cyber warfare, and global pandemics. Proponents say the current structure of the UN reflects the geopolitical landscape of 1945, when most of Africa, Asia, and Latin America were foreign colonies, not today’s world of independent states. For these reasons, they note the 1945 document is urgently in need of a comprehensive update to address these modern global challenges and the need for greater representation and a stronger voice in global governance. Such a process is complicated, and opponents contend that the political obstacles to formal amendment are too great. Already, a group called the ‘‘Coalition of the Willing’’ wants Article 109 of the UN Charter invoked to start the conversation.
Whatever the outcome, the conversation will only gain steam this year.
