COP30 DAILY BLOG
COP30 commenced in Belem, Brazil on 10 November 2025.
Welcome to the Power Shift Africa COP30 daily blog
In this blog, we will bring you news and updates of the summit, progress of the negotiations, including some of the hotly contested agenda items, detailing what is at stake for Africa and the world, and in-depth analyses of the final outcomes.
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THE COP30 BLOG FINALE
In a few hours, the two-week-long climate negotiations at COP30 will conclude, barring prolonged last-minute fights or disruptions, like we saw yesterday afternoon, when a fire broke out at the venue. Details of that, below.
As the clock races towards the end, negotiators are dealing with multiple, complex issues to strike an agreement for the overall Belem package.
On the table are issues such as the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) indicators and the means of implementation, climate finance, a roadmap to transition from fossil fuels as agreed at COP28 (details of that later), as well as a push to have all countries update their NDC.
It's a full plate, really.
It’s been a profoundly joyous ride with you all over the past two weeks. It’s only going to get more packed and more exciting, only edgier, as the day progresses.
Stay with us until the end for more updates and analyses of the COP30 outcome.
The Moment COP30 Venue Went Up in Flames
It’s not the end many had expected.
The Thursday afternoon inferno at the COP30 venue in Belém, Brazil, caught many by surprise, leaving hundreds to scramble for safety and adding a layer of anxiety to the already tense period as the world awaits the outcome from the two-week climate talks in the Amazon.
The fire is said to have started at one of the pavilions before spreading to other sections of the facility. For minutes, a heavy cloud of smoke billowed from the venue as the fire tore through different structures, with considerable damage.
The UNFCCC suspended all activities, including negotiations, for six hours until after 8 PM, when the fire had been contained and the premises certified as safe for use. At 8:40 PM, operations were reinstated in the Blue Zone, the area where negotiations take place.
No injuries were reported. One firefighter was, however, helped out of the venue, unconscious. The fire scare led to the cancellation of the plenary session last evening. ‘‘The area affected by the incident will remain isolated until the conclusion of the conference,’’ the presidency said in a statement to the media.
Reacting to the fire incident, Power Shift Africa director Mohamed Adow lauded the spirit of brotherhood displayed by the participants. ‘‘Even in a moment of chaos, one thing stood out: people from every corner of the world, different nations, creeds and affiliations, looked out for one another. Delegates helped strangers, staff guided crowds, and no one stopped to ask who belonged to which bloc before stepping in.’’
The spirit of care and collaboration evident during the fire scare is ‘‘precisely what climate action demands,’’ Mohamed added. ‘‘If we can respond to the planet’s emergencies with the same unity shown in that tense moment, COP30 might yet be remembered not for an incident, but for a turning point.’’
Out Kangaroo, In the Grey Wolf
Antalya it is.
After a bruising battle over who to host COP31, Turkey has finally been confirmed as the destination of the 2026 UN climate talks. This brings an end the standoff that has lasted months between Australia and the Eastern European country on the hosting duties of the next summit.
Turkey now has 12 months to develop the infrastructure for the summit, fashion the agenda, and kickstart diplomatic manoeuvres to garner support for its round of climate talks. The country will, however, be supported by Australia, which will lead the negotiations before the COP, with Turkey hosting the main summit as the presidency.
‘‘What we’ve come up with is a big win for both Australia and Turkey,” Australia PM Antony Albanese announced. But not everyone was happy with Australia’s concession.
“We are all not happy and disappointed it’s ended up like this,” said Papua New Guinea’s foreign minister, Justin Tkatchenko, who had hoped Australia would co-host the next COP with its Pacific neighbours.
Turkey, though, says it will host a COP ‘‘for both developing and developed’’ countries, given its status as an advanced developing economy. With a $1.4 trillion GDP, the country is one of the 20 largest economies in the world.
For millions of Turks, the impacts of the climate crisis are not uncommon. The country has been battered by floods, droughts, heatwaves, and extreme wildfires in recent decades, with the host city of Antalya being on the receiving end of the devastation.
Last week, Ethiopia was confirmed as the host of COP32, marking the first time a host of the summit had been decided before that of the immediate next COP.
End of the road? Will Roadmap to a Fossil-Free World Weather Bumps?
As the clock ticks towards the end of the ongoing climate talks in Belem, the roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels appears to be thrust into headwinds after it failed to garner the necessary support. The proposal is said to have been removed from the text.
On Tuesday this week, 82 countries from around the world, or nearly half of the nations at COP30, signed up to the roadmap. As the week progressed, however, support for the potential roadmap waned. The signatories represent just 7 percent of fossil fuel producers in the world, and analysts warn that these countries are virtually unable to convince major petrostates.
Russia, China, India and South Africa had told the Brazilians that they would not accept the proposal. Ironically, the quartet, together with Brazil, are members of the powerful BRICS economic bloc. They are also major producers and consumers of oil, coal and gas. Saudi Arabia and China are said to be more open to the roadmap idea, as long as each country gets to choose its own pathway.
Meanwhile, those who supported the roadmap proposal have threatened to block any agreement without it.
Now President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has vowed to take the roadmap gospel to the G20 meeting in Johannesburg starting tomorrow. Some feel that President Lula stands a better chance at the G20, which brings together more powerful world leaders than at the COP, where negotiations are conducted by ministers.
When he visited Belem on Wednesday evening, the president vowed to fight for the roadmap in whatever forum, without ‘‘imposing anything on anyone.’’
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After the Tuesday night shocker by the COP30 Presidency to push Parties to an agreement, things did not end there.
Yesterday, President Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil showed up in Belém, in a visit his team said aimed to ‘‘provide an overview’’ of the negotiations. In a statement later, the presidency said the conference ‘‘will continue until Friday.’’
For the president to travel 2000 kilometres from the capital, Brasilia, northwards to Belém, the move was neither accidental nor isolated. It bore all the undertones of political intent. Tomorrow is the final day of the climate talks, and the Brazilian authorities are ready to wrap things up. The sooner the better.
We had speculated that Brazil could be moving to close the deal to allow President Lula da Silva to travel to South Africa for the G20 Summit that starts on Saturday. A delay in the conclusion of the talks would disrupt his itinerary.
Whether President Lula will be returning to Belém can only be speculated, although it appears unlikely now.
In Belém, the president met his chief diplomat for the summit, President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, Environment Minister Marina Silva, and a host of other high-ranking Brazilian government officials.
In an address to them, President Lula called for stronger ‘‘greenhouse gas reductions’’ underscoring his country’s desire to secure a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels. The roadmap is a brainchild of Brazil’s that sets out action plans and targets for reducing the global use of fossil fuels.
Why the Roadmap is a Big Deal for Brazil
While acknowledging the sovereignty of countries to determine what they can do and their timeframe and capacities for phasing out fossil fuels, Lula emphasised the need to ‘‘show seriousness’’ in the negotiations.
“Everyone must understand their responsibility. That is why we introduced the Roadmap. We must show society that we are serious—without imposing anything on anyone, without setting deadlines,’’ President Lula said.
On committing to this cause, he added: ‘‘All leaders around the world must understand that caring for the climate is caring for the preservation and continued existence of planet Earth, because we have not yet found another place where we can survive.’’
The world must begin to consider how to live without fossil fuels and how to design such a future. ‘‘I say this with conviction because I am from a country that produces oil. But I am also from a country that uses the highest proportion of ethanol blended with gasoline.’’
For this to happen, poorer countries must receive support from wealthier ones, he noted.
‘‘Wealthy countries can support Africa’s energy transition, the production of biofuels, and the expansion of wind and solar power. This is not only about providing limited financial resources, but also about transferring technology and knowledge.’’
Maintaining clean water, he noted, is a commitment ‘‘to keeping the planet functioning’’ rather than an abstract concept. While muffled, this could be a giveaway into what to expect under the means of implementation.
Brazil’s environment minister Marina Silva observed that the roadmap had sparked a fierce debate, with questions emerging. ‘‘Everyone has questions, but certainly, we had good answers. Not definitive answers, but procedural answers.’’
The minister argued that the roadmap is an opportunity for developed and developing countries to establish their own trajectories for the energy transition and curb deforestation.
‘‘This means establishing a language that respects the demands of developing countries, that increases the responsibilities of countries that historically emit more and have more technology and more financial resources,’’ said Marina.
Brazil, though, defended itself against claims of rushing the process, saying it’s trying to build understanding because ‘‘at COP nothing is imposed.’’
‘‘Everything must be achieved through consensus; everything must be thoroughly discussed. And we respect the political, ideological, territorial, and cultural sovereignty of every country.’’
President Lula does believe, though, that Brazilian negotiators will ‘‘achieve the best possible outcomes’’ for COP30. ‘‘If it is possible, let us build it together.’’
Mood and Body Language
On his part, COP30 President Corrêa do Lago described the events of the day as ‘‘very good’’ noting that the presidency had met several negotiating groups, civil society and the private sector to discuss ‘‘some of the most complex issues,’’ including adaptation, finance and the fossil fuel phaseout roadmap.
‘‘We discussed the immense consequences of COP30 from an economic point of view, a [climatic] point of view and [human] point of view,’’ said President do Lago.
On whether the consensus alluded to by her president is feasible, Marina said the dialogue was fruitful. ‘‘Nobody has a ready-made answer. Nobody wants to impose anything on anyone.’’
‘‘We still have a long way to go to establish consensus. I believe in progressive consensus, when we all intend to do our best for the climate, for the dignity of the most vulnerable, because ethics always provides the technical answers to the great challenges we face.’’
Whether Brazil can persuade other countries to agree to a deal will be known in the next few hours.
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The Countdown Begins
It’s Day 10 of COP30 in Belem, Brazil. That means we have two more days to go, if the climate talks end on time. In two days, we will have the outcome of the high-octane summit at the heart of the Amazon. But the COP can sometimes have a few wild cards up its sleeve.
By the look of things, and given what is on the table, Friday does look like a long shot. But give it to Brazil. Their diplomacy, while far from sophisticated, has gotten things moving. Understated, yes, but effective.
With about 72 hours of COP remaining, discussions on most items are at an advanced. To secure agreements, many negotiation items, though, will go down to the wire. For COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, all agenda items must be agreed. Still, don’t be shocked if Belem pulls off a last-minute surprise, with agreements, compromises, and concessions.
But where are things now?
Adoption of the Belém Political Package
Today, countries at COP30 will adopt the Belém Political Package, the contents of which will be made public later. This was announced last night by the COP30 Presidency. The president and his team will be consulting with ministers ‘‘to progress toward agreement.’’
The political package, however, doesn’t include draft texts on each of the negotiated items, with the preparation of these spilling over into last night.
It could include items such as the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP), the Technology Implementation Programme (TIP), and matters related to the Adaptation Fund.
The presidency is also consulting on the implementation of Article 9 (paragraph 1).
Reads the section: ‘‘Developed country Parties shall provide financial resources to assist developing country Parties with respect to both mitigation and adaptation in continuation of their existing obligations under the Convention.’’
According to the presidency, these texts could be ready for adoption on Friday, 21 November, suggesting the possibility of the climate talks ending on the planned date.
Launched: Alliance for the Implementation of National Adaptation Plans
Yesterday, the Alliance for the Implementation of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) was launched at COP30, aiming to accelerate large-scale implementation of climate change adaptation actions around the world.
Spearheaded by the COP30 Presidency, Germany, Italy, and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the alliance will promote dialogue on national adaptation plans and facilitate public and private resources to adaptation projects.
The alliance was established under the COP30 Action Agenda. It hopes to bring together national governments, multilateral development banks, investment funds, civil society, and the private sector.
It will also seek to address bottlenecks that hinder large-scale adaptation actions, especially in developing, climate-vulnerable nations.
Adaptation Finance is one of the key conversations at this year’s COP30, alongside calls to strengthen capacity-building and technology transfer. to address the challenge.
Developed by national governments, NAPs define how countries will adapt to climate change in the medium and long term by guiding country responses to climate risks and reducing vulnerabilities to protect people, infrastructure, livelihoods, the economy, and the environment.
Where’s the Money, though?
Yesterday, the presidency released a draft text on some of the ongoing discussions at COP30, giving a glimpse into what the outcome might contain.
On Adaptation Finance, the draft text has three options. Under Option 1, COP30 could decide to establish a goal of tripling adaptation finance from public sources by 2030 or 2035. Option 2 merely ‘‘acknowledges the need to dramatically scale up adaptation finance’’ to bring it to par with mitigation, through public and grant-based resources and highly concessional finance.
In Option 3, COP30 could urge developed country Parties to at least triple their collective provision of climate finance for adaptation to developing country Parties from 2025 levels by 2030. This option would also see the launch of an annual ‘‘Belem Dialogue on Tripling Adaptation Finance’’ to consider progress on the delivery of the goal.
On Loss and Damage, COP30 highlights with concern the ‘‘insufficient capitalization of the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage’’ and negative signals delivered in the context of replenishment processes of the Global Environment Facility and the Green Climate Fund.
African civil society wanted COP30 to enhance and ensure the predictability of financial support for climate action in developing countries through guaranteeing finance for the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) and tripling adaptation finance, while also providing a home for a new commitment with the strongest legal basis.
The draft text welcomes the efforts to reform the international financial architecture and notes the need to ‘‘rapidly reduce existing constraints, challenges, systemic inequities, and barriers’’ to access to climate finance.
Notable Quotes from the Week
‘‘The Amazon Region remains a living symbol of creation with an urgent need for care. True leadership means service and support at a scale that will truly make a difference.’’ – Pope Francis
‘‘This COP is a moment of truth. If global leaders are serious about justice, then adaptation finance must match the urgency of the crisis, not in rhetoric, but in real, accessible, scaled-up resources.’’ – Karabo Mokgonyana
‘‘Without adaptation, climate change becomes a multiplier of poverty, destroying livelihoods, displacing workers, and deepening hunger. As the impacts intensify, inaction is no longer a technical failure but a political choice about who lives and who dies,” - André Aranha Corrêa do Lago
What to Expect on Day 10
The thematic focus on the day will be:
Agriculture
Food Systems and Security,
Fishing and Family Farming
Women and Gender
Tourism
Discussions will also centre on women voices in food systems, land degradation, practical solutions for resilient agriculture and food systems, and a high-level event on accelerating the implementation of these solutions.
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It's Day 9 at COP30. This means we’re fast approaching the squeaky bum time at the climate talks. If you’ve come this far with us, you’re a true defender of people and the planet. A climate champion. Thank you for sticking the past week out.
Today, we have a mixed bag of updates from Belem.
Inside the Dangerous Letter by UN Climate Chief
On Friday last week, discontent members of the Amazonian Indigenous People blocked the entrance of the COP30 venue in Belém. Fearing the protests would disrupt proceedings at the climate talks, UN Climate chief Simon Stiell wrote a secret letter to the government of Brazil, asking for enhanced security at COP30.
The Brazilian authorities would respond swiftly and emphatically. Within minutes, a contingent of police and military officers sealed off the venue.
Then a standoff.
Members of the civil society have now faulted the crackdown on the Amazon residents by the Government of Brazil. But the guns are being trained on Stiell, the author of the letter. More than 200 civil society organisations from around the world have hit back.
‘‘What the letter does is sends a very dangerous signal not just to this COP by other future COP presidencies,’’ argues Ghazali Ohorella, an Indigenous Peoples' representative at the summit.
Ohorella adds: ‘‘They think they can limit the civic space and the ability of people to make their voices heard at a COP.’’
Rights groups want the UNFCCC executive to rescind the letter. Not just that. They also want the military to be withdrawn from the COP venue.
Power Past Coal Alliance
At COP30, South Korea joined a group of 60 countries pledging to wean themselves off the dirtiest of dirty fossil fuels. Its fleet of 62 coal-fired plants is one of the biggest in the world and a third of its electricity currently comes from coal.
At 15 million tonnes per year, South Korea is also the world’s fourth biggest importer of thermal coal, the bulk of which comes from Australia, as per the International Energy Agency (IEA). Only China, India and Japan import more.
Let’s Gather Against Fossil Fuels
In April next year, Colombia will host the first international conference on the phase out of fossil fuels. A member of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative (FFNPT), the Latin American country announced at COP30, where discussions are ongoing to establish a roadmap to phase out fossil fuels.
The FFNPT is an international campaign that seeks to mobilise international cooperation ‘‘to explicitly stop the expansion of fossil fuels’’ and manage a global just transition away from coal, oil and gas in a manner that is both fast and fair, so that no worker, community or country is left behind.
Weighing a Cow Won’t Fatten it
Responding to discussions on the Global Goal on Adaptation, director of Power Shift Africa, Mohamed Adow, argues that if the international community spends its energy designing the ‘‘perfect measurement instrument’’ without delivering the actual adaptation support that vulnerable countries need, the whole exercise becomes ‘‘a high-gloss distraction.’’
He warns there’s a risk that indicators could become ‘‘the illusion of progress’’ rather than the ‘‘substance’’ of it. To Mohamed, measuring without delivering is ‘‘political theatre’’ dressed up as accountability.
‘‘No matter how many times you weigh a cow, it will not get any fatter. Measurement does not create nourishment.’’
On finance, Mohamed notes that the root of the problem is the vagueness of last year’s finance deal in Baku ‘‘it could have been written in disappearing ink.’’
The NCQG deal, he added, failed to define the scale, structure, or predictability of public climate finance. "It avoided clarity on grants versus loans. It sidestepped the thorny but essential question of who delivers what, by when, and to whom.’’
This has Ieft the very foundation of global climate cooperation ‘‘wobbling in the wind.’’
Planet to Continue Frying - New Study
A new study removes the lid on the ferocity of heatwaves in the future, spelling doom for humanity and the planet. According to findings of the research, heatwaves will become hotter, longer and more frequent, the later net zero emissions is reached globally.
Scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and Australia’s national science agency, CISRO warn that countries near the equator would experience heatwave events that break current historical records at least once yearly, should they delay net zero until 2050.
There’s worse from the study. Heatwaves will not revert towards preindustrial conditions for at least another 1000 years after net zero is reached. The world has already crossed the red line.
What to Expect on Day 9
Like yesterday, major themes to feature at negotiations and events today include forests, oceans, biodiversity and Indigenous peoples.
There will be several ministerial events in the day, including on delivering commitments for oceans, strengthening synergies across land, climate and nature and building the ecosystem for scale.
Also planned in the day is a roundtable to launch the NAP Implementation Alliance.
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Welcome to the 8th day of COP30. The first day of the Week Finale. Ask any delegate. It’s the most treacherous period of a climate summit. At this point, exhaustion has crystallised in the bones, and the pressure in negotiation rooms is peaking as the clock ticks toward the finish line. After what has been a relatively calm COP, gloves might start to come off soon.
Aware of fraying nerves, UN climate chief executive, Simon Stiell, had this to say to the delegates as Week One ended: ‘‘I know you are tired. But once again, I am asking you to push further.’’
From agreeing a roadmap to ending the fossil fuel regime to the means of implementation, and unilateral trade measures, we’ve entered the week when the hardest battles for our planet are to be fought.
But first, a recap of what transpired last week.
The historic People’s March
This was easily the colourful, emphatic and emotional highlight of Week One. On Sunday, more than 30,000 people marched through the city of Belém, Brazil, to mark the ‘‘Global Day of Action for Climate Justice’’. In a mobilisation led by the People’s Summit and supported by civil society groups, the march brought together workers’ unions, Indigenous communities, international networks, youth movements, and climate defenders from across the world to demand climate justice.
It was the first march by civil society organisations at a COP in four years, the last one being at COP21 in Glasgow. Subsequent summits (COP27 in Sharm-el-Sheikh, COP28 in Dubai, and COP29 in Baku) were held in countries that don’t permit political protests. Marches allow representatives of the people to make demands and share concerns about the COP process away from the highly exclusive negotiation rooms.
Mohamed Adow described the procession as ‘‘a powerful reminder’’ that solutions can come from the most unexpected of places.
‘‘For too long, climate action has been shaped in closed rooms in distant capitals. But here in the Amazon, the people who have done the least to cause this crisis — Indigenous peoples, local communities, young people, and those on the frontlines — are showing the world what real climate leadership looks like,’’ said the director of Power Shift Africa.
He added: ‘‘If governments truly want to tackle the climate crisis, they must listen to the voices from the ground and put people, not polluters, at the heart of climate action.’’
Moarse Flores, a human rights officer at the UN, called the protests a ‘‘reality check’’ where the interests of real communities, real ecosystems, real futures are represented. ‘‘The march is where climate action sheds its polish and shows its teeth, where global solidarity stops being a buzzword and becomes something you feel in your bones.’’
Roadmap for global phaseout of fossil fuels
Will the world finally start the journey to phase out fossil fuels at COP30? This is the question on many people’s minds, and one of the most controversial items of debate at the talks in Belém.
Yesterday, Brazil’s environment minister, Marina Silva, asked all countries ‘‘to have the courage’’ to address the end of the fossil fuel regime, noting that this was an ‘‘ethical’’ response to the climate crisis.
“The map is an answer to our scientific knowledge [of the climate crisis]. It is an ethical answer,” Ms Silva said, adding on the just transition, “To be fair is to be fair to everyone, but the essential, primordial justice is not to be unfair to the planet, because it is our home.”
Countries have been debating whether there should be such a roadmap and how a global phaseout could work, to build on the historic resolution made at COP28 in Dubai, where world nations agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels”.
The Dubai resolution was, however, ambiguous, with no timelines or real commitments. Many see a roadmap as the surest way to compel countries, especially major polluters, to end their polluting ways.
Ms Silva emphasised, however, that such a process would be voluntary and “self-determined”, and raising doubts about whether Brazil will be the place where humanity unites to declare an end to dirty fuels.
Agitated by the ambiguity of the conversation, some were less civil. “We need this language for real in this conversation,’’ said Panama’s climate negotiator, Juan Carlos Monterrey. ‘‘It’s quite stupid that we talk about everything but that when fossil fuels are the actual problem.”
Leave our land: disgruntled Amazonian residents tell oil companies
For hours on Friday and Saturday, activities at the COP30 venue in Belem, Brazil, were paralysed, when the local Amazonian community invaded the premises to demand inclusion in the COP process and the invasion of their land by oil companies.
Despite grave environmental and climate concerns, there is ongoing oil exploration and extraction in the Brazilian section of the Amazon. Recently, the government issued new exploration licenses for offshore blocks, with Petrobras, the country’s state-run oil company, among those granted licenses to drill in the vast ecosystem. ExxonMobil and Chevron have also been granted permits to drill.
COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago intervened in the protests, although the organisers went ahead to beef up security by deploying armed military and police to the venue, a move that has angered residents and activists.
‘‘The increased securitisation of the COP30 venue with army, national guard and military police personnel just shows how inaccessible the UNFCCC negotiations processes have been to the wider Indigenous communities and populations most affected by climate change,’’ said Paolo Destilo of United for Climate Justice.
Their chief, Raoni Metuktire, has called on the COP to protect them and their home. “If we continue destroying everything on this earth, there will be many consequences, there will be chaos on this earth.”
This analysis by Kick Big Polluters Out reveals that one in every 25 participants at COP30 is a fossil fuel lobbyist. At 1600, fossil fuel lobbyists are the second largest delegation at COP30 after host Brazil.
Critical Minerals finally recognised at COP!
In a UN climate negotiations first, a draft text included energy transition minerals, known as critical minerals. These minerals are used to manufacture components used in clean energy technologies, including batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines.
The draft text recognises the social and environmental risks associated with mining critical minerals. “For the first time, minerals are on the main stage of COP negotiations – no longer a side show,” said Melissa Marengo, a senior policy officer at the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI).
Increased extraction of copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium and other critical minerals, while creating opportunities for local communities, comes with serious environmental pressures. Under the Just Transition Work Programme, developing countries want the COP30 text to include the impacts and opportunities of mining critical minerals.
What happens today
This day is dedicated to discussions on:
Forests
Oceans
Biodiversity
Indigenous Peoples
Local Communities
Youth, and Small and
Medium Enterprises (SMEs).
This day integrates various pressing environmental and social issues, with the thematic focus structured to highlight the critical roles of natural ecosystems (forests and oceans) and their custodians (communities who protect them) in addressing the climate crisis.
What to Expect this week
The outcome of COP30 will be known this week. But as things currently stand, that is a long, long way. This is the week of long knives, as per the COP tradition.
As we reported last week, environment and climate ministers from around the world have started arriving in Belem for the political part of the process. The ministers will debate the text developed so far by their technical teams and negotiators. The ministers may either approve or take back the text for further refinement.
This is the week when political dealmaking crescendos as Parties seek to unlock impasses and secure favourable outcomes.
Technical work will continue until tomorrow (Tuesday, November 18) on the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP).
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It’s Day 5 of the climate talks in Belém and, like the weather in this city, things are fast approaching the boiling point.
While the mood has been mild so far, this weekend will be the first real test for the Brazilian COP presidency on whether they can keep their chin up when pressure finally kicks in, to deliver on some of the critical agenda items, especially finance.
Nuisance of fossil fuel lobbyists at COP30
We set off on a cruise of Guamáand Belém rivers on a sour note.
Fossil fuel lobbyists are back at COP. OK, they never left. In fact, this time they are bolder and more audacious than before.
At 1600, fossil fuel lobbyists are the second largest delegation after host Brazil. An analysis by Kick Big Polluters Out reveals that one in every 25 participants at COP30 is a fossil fuel lobbyist.
This continues the trend at COP29 in Azerbaijan, where fossil fuel lobbyists (1773) were the 3rd largest group of participants after then host, Azerbaijan, and the incoming presidency of Brazil. While this year’s overall number is smaller than last year’s, the proportion is higher as the Belém summit has fewer attendees compared to its predecessor in Baku.
The fossil fuel industry has a long history of spreading misinformation and disinformation on climate change while blocking meaningful climate action. Observers say their presence at COPs raises serious questions about corporate capture and the credibility of the annual summit.
Launch of Belém Health Action Plan (BHAP)
Yesterday, Brazil launched the ‘‘Belém Health Action Plan’’ to support the health sector’s adaptation to climate change. The plan has been described as the ‘‘first international climate adaptation document’’ dedicated specifically to health.
The initiative outlines measures countries can take to enhance the health sector’s resilience to climate change. These include strengthened surveillance systems, capacity building, innovation, and evidence-based policymaking.
The COP30 Presidency says the plan positions Brazil at the forefront of global discussions on health and climate change. More than 80 countries have pledged to engage with the action plan, with philanthropies committing $300 million to support it.
Strengthening Early Warning Systems & Systemic Observations
The 2025 report on the Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems, launched at COP30, shows that more than 60 percent of countries worldwide have EWS in place. These systems have also improved by 45 percent since 2015, reflecting enhanced capabilities.
The report by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), however, highlights ‘‘critical gaps’’ and the urgent need for increased investment to achieve Early Warnings for All.
It places special focus on emerging and intensifying hazards, notably extreme heat, wildfires, and floods. People-centered, locally led approaches that are underpinned by communication and dialogue are essential for enabling effective early action, says the report, available here.
Ministers arriving in the Amazon
This weekend, ministers of environment and climate change from around the world will start arriving in Belém, ready to take climate negotiations to the next level. Week Two of the talks is fast closing in, and so is the end of COP30.
When they land in Belém, the ministers will start working on the text. To do that, the text needs to be ready. Which is why throughout this week, technocrats have been poring through thousands of pages of reports, scientific findings and policy documents to develop the text, ready for the negotiations proper this week.
NEW NDCs at COP30
Since COP30 started on Monday, 13 additional countries have submitted their updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). More than 100 countries globally had missed the September deadline to submit their updated NDCs.
See our list of major economies and polluters that missed the deadline.
India, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, ranked 3rd, 7th and 10th largest emitters, respectively, have yet to submit their NDC.
The European Union (EU) submitted its NDC 5 days before COP30, while Turkey submitted its updated commitments on the eve of the climate talks.
What to Expect Today
Major themes to be explored include:
Energy
Industry
Transport
Trade
Finance and
Carbon Markets
The day will also feature several high-level ministerial events, including a roundtable on Implementation of the Pledge on Sustainable Fuels, the Belém Declaration on Accelerating Green Industrialisation, and ‘‘Novel Approaches to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels’’.
Other discussions today will touch on the future of energy in shipping and ‘‘Accelerating Action on Grids and Storage.’’
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What happened at COP30 on Day 4
The theme of the day was Adaptation.
We started with an action by the Climate Action Network. Members of the CSOs were outside the venue calling for scaling of the Adaptation Fund. Only one question mattered: where's the money?
Inside the negotiation rooms, the pressure was getting worse!
Developing countries expressed concern over the current indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation, with some arguing that the list should be postponed to COP31.
The African Group and Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs) pointed out the lack of clear and sufficient commitments for adaptation finance, stressing the need for developed countries to provide more predictable and accountable funding.
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It’s Day 3 of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, a day of light winds and temperatures of 31°C, although it feels like 38°C. There’s half a chance it might rain today.
We start with a series of good news for Africa.
Hoorah! Ethiopia to host COP32
Firstly, the destination for COP32 will be Addis Ababa, after Ethiopia successfully bid to host the climate talks in 2027 and to shape the agenda and outcomes of the event.
Ethiopia confirmed at a plenary session at COP30 yesterday that fellow African nations had endorsed it to host the conference, its successful bid coming hard on the heels of the Africa Climate Summit (ACS2), which the country hosted in Addis Ababa in September this year.
Ethiopia’s ambassador to Brazil, Leulseged Tadese Abebe, said his country was ‘‘deeply grateful’’ for the trust and confidence bestowed on his country, adding, ‘‘COP32 will play a major role in guiding climate action in this critical decade.’’
Mohamed Adow, the director of Power Shift Africa, described it as ‘‘great news’’ and a ‘‘good choice’’ for Ethiopia to be the host of the 32nd edition of the COP, adding that this is a powerful recognition of the country’s commitment to building resilience, advancing renewable energy, and driving home-grown climate solutions.
By coming to Ethiopia, he noted that the world has an opportunity ‘‘to see firsthand’’ the devastation of climate change on the continent.
‘‘Ethiopia now has a vital platform to amplify African voices and priorities, particularly around adaptation finance, renewable energy access, and climate justice,’’ Mohamed said in a statement.
Read the full statement here.
On its ability to successfully host the COP, Mohamed noted: ‘‘Ethiopia will be motivated to deliver a strong outcome that really helps those facing the impacts of climate breakdown.’’
Loss and Damage Fund Calls for Proposals
Secondly, the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) has asked climate-impacted developing countries to submit proposals for resources to address their losses and damage, three years after the fund was established at COP27 in Egypt in 2022.
The call for proposals is the first by the fund’s board, which said $250 million would be available for disbursement.
FRLD board Co-Chair Jean-Christophe Donnellier announced that this call for proposals aims to test and shape the fund’s long-term model and that it will serve to assure developing and climate-vulnerable countries that ‘‘support is available’’ to climate impacts.
Made operational at COP28 in Dubai two years ago, the fund has so far received approximately $350 million from the $789 million pledged by developed countries and other contributors. This is only a fraction of the estimated $400 billion needed annually to address climate-induced loss and damage.
In their demands, African civil society had called on this COP to provide clear pathways for capitalising the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD).
Which way for COP31?
On to some not-so-good news, as the fate of COP31 continues to hang in the balance, with countries unable to resolve the impasse of who the next host of the annual climate talks will be. Both Australia and Turkey have bid to host the summit.
So far, neither country has said how its presidency would accelerate action, whether locally or globally. Any country that wishes to stage the annual climate talks is often expected to make a bid based on its climate credentials. Ethiopia fronted its Green Legacy Initiative as the driver of its bid – and won.
To date, Turkey, which ranks as the 15th largest emitter of CO2 in the world, has yet to submit its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), having last done so in 2023.
What does this mean for the next COP?
In the event a resolution isn’t reached, the UNFCCC headquarters in Bonn becomes the default host. It’s a prospect being frowned upon by both the German government and the UNFCCC secretariat, owing to the logistical nightmare that hosting an event of this magnitude presents.
This happened during COP23, presided over by Fiji.
Meanwhile, the drama continues.
What to Expect on Day 3
The day’s agenda aims to connect global policy decisions with practical implementation and local transformation beyond isolated diplomatic events.
An array of events will be held today, aiming to link the formal negotiations to real-world challenges in areas such as public health, jobs, education, culture, justice and human and worker rights. Other priority areas include information integrity and the Global Ethical Stocktake.
Emphasis will be put on ensuring that the just transition places people at the center of climate planning.
Today is also the ‘‘Means of Implementation Day’’ with a focus on strengthening the skills and systems necessary to drive climate action and a just transition.
On the Negotiations Front…Negotiators in the formal Blue Zone sessions will continue with technical discussions on key issues, including, importantly, agreeing on indicators to measure progress on adaptation and developing a roadmap for climate finance goals.
Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF).. This is considered a cornerstone of the Paris Agreement and seeks to build trust and accountability among world nations in climate action.
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It’s Day 2 of COP30.
With the bang of the gavel yesterday, the COP Presidency officially passed on from Azerbaijan to Brazil, with implementation on everyone’s mind.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil has dubbed the summit his country is hosting the “COP of Truth”, with calls to put people at the heart of climate action.
Lula’s sentiments were echoed by COP30 President, Amb. André Corrêa do Lago, who urged the thousands of delegates gathering in the Amazonian city of Belem to ensure this COP delivers on ‘‘real solutions.’
Newsmakers on Day 1 of COP30
Day 1 of the ‘‘COP of Truth and Action’’ featured multiple newsmakers, all warning and reminding the world of the climate threat.
“This COP must be remembered as the COP of Action — a conference that turns commitments into results. It is time to integrate climate, economy, and development, creating jobs, reducing inequalities, and strengthening trust among nations,” said Amb. Corrêa do Lago.
The COP30 President defended climate multilateralism while lauding it for fostering ‘‘unity and purpose’’ among nations of the world against the biggest threat to humanity and the planet: climate change.
“COP30 is the result of a mutirão — a Brazilian word the world has learned, which symbolizes the essence of this conference: working together,” he added.
UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell told delegates that the framework created by the Paris Agreement is ‘‘still sound.’’ But he had this solemn reminder. ‘‘The next decade will determine whether it delivers in full. History will not ask what we intended. It will ask what we achieved.”
You can read the five takeaways from Stiell’s opening statement in our newsletter.
In earlier remarks, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres had warned that the Amazon could become a savannah if humanity doesn’t act fast. ‘‘That’s a real risk if we don’t change course and if we don’t make a dramatic decrease in emissions as soon as possible.”
While not exactly festive, the mood in Belém so far is one of hope. To some observers, this signals life and a future for multilateral climate diplomacy. To others, not quite.
As Power Shift Director, Mohamed Adow so assertively put it, “Saving the UN process doesn’t mean we’re guaranteed to save the planet”. That will require real progress on climate finance.
Africa’s special needs and circumstances
As part of its demands, Africa had proposed an agenda item to recognise its “special needs and circumstances.” In the end, the proposal was not adopted as a formal agenda, throwing the long-drawn-out push into limbo.
All isn’t lost, though, as the matter will now be taken up through informal consultations led by the COP Presidency, until Wednesday.
‘‘I will convene a stocktaking plenary on Wednesday, November 12, to update on presidency consultations. I also propose to convene consultations on the special needs and circumstances of Africa. The outcome of those consultations will be reflected in the report of the session.’’ said the president.
Not a Finance COP
At this COP, long-term climate finance will not be on the agenda as this is not a ‘‘Finance COP’’, according to the summit president Amb. Corrêa do Lago. He announced this at the opening plenary, saying the matter had been deferred to COP31.
To date, it’s not clear which country will host next year’s COP, with Australia and Turkey both bidding to host the climate talks.
COP32 will be an African COP
While a decision is yet to made on the next host for the global climate talks, the 32nd edition of the COP will likely be held on African soil. Already, Ethiopia has emerged as a frontrunner, in a race that has also seen Nigeria throw its hat into the ring.
During September’s Africa Climate Summit (ACS2), Ethiopia expressed interest to welcome the world in Addis Ababa for the event. Whether Ethiopia’s will be a successful bid to host the world’s largest gathering on climate could be confirmed as soon as today.
What to Expect on Day 2
It’s a packed second day at COP30, with 137 events scheduled to take place today, including multiple high-level meetings by the presidency.
Some of the negotiations, workshops and informal consultations set to happen today include matters relating:
Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)
Adaptation Fund (AF)
National Adaptation Plans (NAPs)
Technology Implementation Programme (TIP) and
Gender and Climate
There will also be high-level ministerial meetings and panels on multilateral governance for the implementation of the Paris Agreement and financing for the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC 3.0).
If you wish to take a breather from the highly technical processes, however, there is some relief. Day 2 will feature events on human rights and climate disinformation, AI for sustainability, and storytelling, heritage and creative industries under the Cultural Power of Climate Action.
Our upcoming short story
If you have read this far, we have some news to share with you.
This week, we will publish a story about how a fast-rising Lake Naivasha in Kenya’s Rift Valley is displacing hundreds of families and farmers. A poignant reminder of why this COP must provide clear pathways for capitalising the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD).
Power Shift Africa will be on hand to help you make sense of the negotiations and what they mean for climate action in Africa and the world.
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What will make Belém a success?
Today is the first day of the climate summit in Belem, Brazil, which will feature a packed agenda for the next two weeks.
In the next few hours, the climate talks will begin, with the official opening ceremony scheduled to take place from 10:00 AM local time.
To be a success for the people and the planet, UN climate chief executive Simon Stiell has said that COP30 must achieve three things.
Foremost, it must send a clear signal that nations are ‘‘fully on board for climate cooperation’’ by agreeing on strong outcomes on all the key issues on the table.
The agenda of this COP, or the ‘‘Action Agenda’’ is organised around six thematic pillars, namely, transitioning energy, industry, and transport; stewarding forests, oceans, and biodiversity and transforming agriculture and food systems.
Others are building resilience for cities, infrastructure, and water; fostering human and social development; and unleashing enablers and accelerators like finance, technology, and capacity building.
On the crucial role of climate multilateralism, Mohamed Adow, founder and director of Power Shift Africa, shares Stiell’s sentiments, saying, ‘‘The world no longer needs more promises. It needs proof that climate multilateralism can still deliver, and that, when it does, it delivers for all.’’
Under the Paris Agreement, nations of the world came together to combat the climate crisis. In recent years, however, global climate cooperation has suffered blows, with developed countries in particular reneging on past commitments and others slowing down on new ones. The United States is already in the process of formally exiting the agreement.
Mohamed argues that the departure of the US, however, should not slow down the climate process. He calls the fight against climate change humanity’s greatest challenge and responsibility.
‘‘The world cannot let the ignorance of one man in the White House dictate the future of the planet. We cannot allow our homes and livelihoods to be destroyed because of this ignorance. We should crack on with or without the US.’’
This COP, he adds, is the moment for the world to come together to take climate action despite the position of the US.
Secondly, COP30 must speed up implementation across all sectors of all economies. Following years of agreements and pledges in the climate discourse, many consider this the ‘‘implementation COP’’ to accelerate climate action based on the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake (GST) at COP28 in Dubai.
This implementation requires the means of implementation (MoI).
Africa’s overarching message at this COP is that the delivery of means to implement climate action, including capacity building, technology transfer, and finance, must match commitments and the evolving needs of the most vulnerable people in the world.
‘‘If COP30 is to deserve the title of the “Implementation COP,” it should also be remembered as the moment Africa helped re-anchor the global climate regime in fairness, solidarity, and accountability,’’ says Mohamed Adow, founder and director of Power Shift Africa.
Thirdly, this COP must connect climate action to people’s real lives. The climate process is about the people and the planet. It is about protecting frontline communities from the impacts of climate change and providing the necessary resources to help them adapt and build their resilience against the climate crisis.
Centering communities, the UN chief executive notes, helps to ‘‘spread the benefits of COP’s outcomes’’ namely, stronger growth, more jobs, less pollution and better health, more affordable, secure energy.
It is for this reason that the African civil society is asking the continent’s premier negotiating bloc, the African Group of Negotiators (AGN), to ‘‘reach beyond formal negotiators’’ and engage civil society, youth, and Indigenous Peoples. These stakeholders, Mohamed says, ‘‘carry the moral authority of justice and the clarity of lived experience’’ of Africans.